Bitcoin (BTC) price remains pinned below $22,000 as the long-term effects of the August 19 sell-off at $25,200 are being felt in the market.
According to analysts at on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, profit-takers and short-term holders sold off BTC’s tap “distribution” at the $25,000 level after a 23-day uptrend hit trendline resistance. The above trade is its realized value ($21,700).
The firm also noted that the “total inflows and outflows across all exchanges” metric showed exchange flows at multi-year lows and back “in late 2020”, reflecting a “general lack of speculative interest”.
Stocks and crypto are clearly risk off until we hear the Fed outlook coming out of Jackson Hole this week/end. $BTC The price continues in the range, but seems a bit “soft”. pic.twitter.com/jpVjG2jslh
– Big Smokey (@big_smokey1) August 23, 2022
From a higher-time frame perspective, Bitcoin’s current price action is merely a continuation of its nearly three-month-long chop in the $18,500 to $22,000 range, but the real drag on sentiment is continued non-crypto-related concerns in the United States. and the global economy.
On August 25, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins and the public will learn more about the Federal Reserve’s view on the US economy, its plans for future interest rate hikes, whether the inflation target will remain at 2% and what the Fed thinks. America and the world economy are in recession. Anticipation of the symposium has clearly unnerved investors and these frayed nerves are visible in the S&P 500, DJI and crypto markets this week.
According to Serhii Zhdanov, CEO of EXMO cryptocurrency exchange:
“There seems to be no single driver for the recent decline. The global crisis continues, and it is not certain where the bottom lies. Inflation has forced people to get rid of their investments to get cash to meet daily expenses. The total amount of credit card debt in many countries A new record high has been reached.Current data shows that covid has not gone away and geopolitical tensions have added fuel to the decline in global markets.
Ether marches to the beat of its own drum
Ether (ETH), on the other hand, seems to show some upside promise from a technical analysis perspective. Last week, the asset recovered alongside BTC and suffered some blows related to centralization fears after the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, approved Tornado Cash and the crypto community feared the potential consequences of a proof-of-stake transition. The network (and its largest ETH stakers) is susceptible to censorship and regulation.
In general, the bullish “merge” story remains in play and the large cup and handle pattern seen on Ether’s daily timeframe, as well as the bounce from the $1,500 level to the $2,500 to $2,900 range is enough to support traders’ dreams of ETH price rising.
Ether looks just as juicy in its ETH/BTC pair, which bounced off support in the 0.073 BTC range.
MVRV on-chain data point devaluation to Bitcoin
As @big_smokey1 mentioned “stocks and crypto [are] Clearly risk-off in terms of the upcoming Jackson Hole and price action”, this is likely to manifest as continued resistance in Bitcoin’s long-term downtrend until a sufficient catalyst comes along to trigger a trend change.
Related: Did the Crypto Relief Rally Crash? Find out now in the market report
For the time being, Bitcoin’s short-term price prospects are less than optimistic, but Jarvis Labs resident analyst “JJ” pinpointed a key on-chain metric that suggests BTC is trading in a generational buy zone.
According to JJ, Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Capitalization vs. Realized Capitalization) indicator is printing an “extremely low” reading.
Does this mean investors should go out and put every last penny into BTC? Probably not, but as the MVRV chart above shows, dollar cost averaging in BTC when its on-chain and technical metrics hit extreme lows has proven to be a profitable strategy in the last three bull markets.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. As every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.